Flix Crix Nix Pix-els?
[Forecast Update]: Pixels opened with $9.2M on 3,723 screens Friday, indicating an estimated $25M and a 1st place berth at the weekend box office. That's $2,471 per screen.
It's far from assured however. Ant-Man made $7.23M on Friday on 3,868 screens for a per-screen take of $1,870. That doesn't bode well for the Marvel/Disney taking the #2 spot. Thor: The Dark World, which dropped 57.2% in its second week, made $2,740 on its 3,841 screens on its second Friday. If Ant-Man cedes the Saturday and Sunday matinees to Pixels then Minions, which Universal is reporting will make $22M this weekend, may take its position.
Paper Towns looks to be living up to its promise as a teen draw making $6.3M in 3,031 theaters for a per-screen take of $2,087 and a three-day total of $20M and fourth.
That's because Trainwreck, the Judd Apatow/Amy Schumer comedy, was off 43.7% from last week's $30M take, with an estimate $16.9M weekend. It is hard to determine whether the horrific events in Lafayette, Louisiana, where an assailant shot 11 people, killing two of them in a theater playing Trainwreck, affected patronage elsewhere and it's painful to even have to consider it. The film has a domestic cume of $61.2M.
Forecast: Greeted with the kind of critical vitriol typically reserved for unpopular presidential candidates Pixels, Sony's lone, big summer release (we're not counting Aloha and Ricki and the Flash), debuts on 3,723 screens.
Sony is giving guidance of $25M for the film, which might seem like an attempt to make a $35M weekend a triumph. But they're probably not far off.
Star Adam Sandler has always been somewhat critic-proof, particularly when appearing in his trademark brand of PG-13 comedic fare. The high concept (or low, depending on your point of view) of an alien invasion of classic arcade game characters can be easily grasped by just about anyone so it should be an easy sell.
But anyone can also grasp the film's abysmal 21% on Rotten Tomatoes, not to mention the not much better 4.8/10 user rating from 1,192 users on IMDb or its Metascore of 27/100. A kind of piling on starts to occur and the audience, not wanting to be suckered even more than they don't want to be told what to do by a snooty critic, will pay heed.
The innocuous PG rated Bedtime Stories seems like a reasonable Sandler film comp and that Disney film made $7,457 per screen in 2008. Sandler's waning bankability (his last film, The Cobbler, was barely put into theaters before being pulled in March), puts Pixels on track for $27.7M. Let's be positive and put it at $29M.
Ant-Man, in its second week, should be in 2nd place but it may not be.
If Minions takes a Shrek the Third, third week drop of 45% that puts it at $27M. That's ahead of Ant-Man, which likely takes a 57.2 decrease off of its $57.2M opening, in line with the 2nd weekend decrease of Thor: The Dark World for $24.5M. Ant-Man has been performing better during the week than Thor 2 so that -57.2% may be too pessimistic.
Trainwreck will take a gentle -30% drop as the only adult comedy available for a $21M weekend.
Paper Towns is based upon a book by John Green, the author of last year's sleeper hit, The Fault in Our Stars. Playing on 3,031 screens the Fox flick stars model Cara Delevingne as the girl-next-door who also happens to be a rebel and happens to disappear from her home. Nat Wolff, who played Isaac, the blind best friend in Fault, is the smitten neighbor who must follow scavenger-hunt like clues to find out where she's gone. Guidance puts the film at the $20M range.
Roadside Attractions has doubled the screen count for the well-performing Mr. Holmes to 684 (was 363 last week). If the Ian McKellen film does $5K per screen they add another $3.2M to their total which would then be around $6.1M.
Southpaw, the film that Harvey Weinstein said in Cannes would right the wrong of overlooking Jake Gyllenhaal for Best Actor for Nightcrawler, opens on 2,750 screens. The shopworn tale of a fighter who has to win the big bout to win outside the ring also stars Rachel McAdams and Academy Award winner, Forest Whitaker, and is pegged at making $13M.
Jurassic World, which made a lot of news by passing the Avengers at the all-time worldwide box office this week, will draft behind that awareness to just sneak ahead of Inside Out with $8.5M.
Forecast (July 24 - 26)
1. Pixels - $29M
2. Minions - $27M (-45.2%)
3. Ant-Man - $24.5M (-57.2%)
4. Trainwreck - $21M (-30.2%)
5. Paper Towns - $20M
It's far from assured however. Ant-Man made $7.23M on Friday on 3,868 screens for a per-screen take of $1,870. That doesn't bode well for the Marvel/Disney taking the #2 spot. Thor: The Dark World, which dropped 57.2% in its second week, made $2,740 on its 3,841 screens on its second Friday. If Ant-Man cedes the Saturday and Sunday matinees to Pixels then Minions, which Universal is reporting will make $22M this weekend, may take its position.
Paper Towns looks to be living up to its promise as a teen draw making $6.3M in 3,031 theaters for a per-screen take of $2,087 and a three-day total of $20M and fourth.
That's because Trainwreck, the Judd Apatow/Amy Schumer comedy, was off 43.7% from last week's $30M take, with an estimate $16.9M weekend. It is hard to determine whether the horrific events in Lafayette, Louisiana, where an assailant shot 11 people, killing two of them in a theater playing Trainwreck, affected patronage elsewhere and it's painful to even have to consider it. The film has a domestic cume of $61.2M.
Forecast: Greeted with the kind of critical vitriol typically reserved for unpopular presidential candidates Pixels, Sony's lone, big summer release (we're not counting Aloha and Ricki and the Flash), debuts on 3,723 screens.
Sony is giving guidance of $25M for the film, which might seem like an attempt to make a $35M weekend a triumph. But they're probably not far off.
Star Adam Sandler has always been somewhat critic-proof, particularly when appearing in his trademark brand of PG-13 comedic fare. The high concept (or low, depending on your point of view) of an alien invasion of classic arcade game characters can be easily grasped by just about anyone so it should be an easy sell.
But anyone can also grasp the film's abysmal 21% on Rotten Tomatoes, not to mention the not much better 4.8/10 user rating from 1,192 users on IMDb or its Metascore of 27/100. A kind of piling on starts to occur and the audience, not wanting to be suckered even more than they don't want to be told what to do by a snooty critic, will pay heed.
The innocuous PG rated Bedtime Stories seems like a reasonable Sandler film comp and that Disney film made $7,457 per screen in 2008. Sandler's waning bankability (his last film, The Cobbler, was barely put into theaters before being pulled in March), puts Pixels on track for $27.7M. Let's be positive and put it at $29M.
Ant-Man, in its second week, should be in 2nd place but it may not be.
If Minions takes a Shrek the Third, third week drop of 45% that puts it at $27M. That's ahead of Ant-Man, which likely takes a 57.2 decrease off of its $57.2M opening, in line with the 2nd weekend decrease of Thor: The Dark World for $24.5M. Ant-Man has been performing better during the week than Thor 2 so that -57.2% may be too pessimistic.
Trainwreck will take a gentle -30% drop as the only adult comedy available for a $21M weekend.
Paper Towns is based upon a book by John Green, the author of last year's sleeper hit, The Fault in Our Stars. Playing on 3,031 screens the Fox flick stars model Cara Delevingne as the girl-next-door who also happens to be a rebel and happens to disappear from her home. Nat Wolff, who played Isaac, the blind best friend in Fault, is the smitten neighbor who must follow scavenger-hunt like clues to find out where she's gone. Guidance puts the film at the $20M range.
Roadside Attractions has doubled the screen count for the well-performing Mr. Holmes to 684 (was 363 last week). If the Ian McKellen film does $5K per screen they add another $3.2M to their total which would then be around $6.1M.
Southpaw, the film that Harvey Weinstein said in Cannes would right the wrong of overlooking Jake Gyllenhaal for Best Actor for Nightcrawler, opens on 2,750 screens. The shopworn tale of a fighter who has to win the big bout to win outside the ring also stars Rachel McAdams and Academy Award winner, Forest Whitaker, and is pegged at making $13M.
Jurassic World, which made a lot of news by passing the Avengers at the all-time worldwide box office this week, will draft behind that awareness to just sneak ahead of Inside Out with $8.5M.
Forecast (July 24 - 26)
1. Pixels - $29M
2. Minions - $27M (-45.2%)
3. Ant-Man - $24.5M (-57.2%)
4. Trainwreck - $21M (-30.2%)
5. Paper Towns - $20M
