‘Moonfall’ & ‘Jackass’ May Finally Topple ‘Spider-Man’
After a sleepy January mostly dominated by Spider-Man: No Way Home taking victory laps after its explosive December opening, February looks to be considerably more eventful. The star-powered slate includes a franchise follow-up (Death on the Nile) and a potential franchise starter (Uncharted) mixed in with a musical rom-com (Marry Me) and a comedy (Dog) to round things out, not to mention a potential boost to the specialty market once the Oscar nominations come out. The month should get off to a solid start this weekend with the latest Roland Emmerich disaster epic Moonfall and the return of the Jackass gang in Jackass Forever.
It may be a close match, but the weekend will likely go to Jackass Forever. Paramount is releasing the film on 3,600 screens and is expecting a gross in the mid-teens for the series’ fourth film (fifth when you count the associated Bad Grandpa). That would make it the weakest opening for the series (currently held by Jackass: The Movie’s $22 million opening), but there’s not much to worry about for a series that keeps its budgets low, in this case $10 million before P&A. The series has grown considerably from the first film’s $64.2 million domestic cume to the third’s $117 million, and though Forever will surely buck the upward trend, it can still be profitable even if it sets a new series low.
Fans can expect the fourth installment of Jackass to deliver on the series’ promise of irreverent and raunchy slapstick, with series regulars Johnny Knoxville, Steve-O, Wee Man, Chris Pontius, Dave England, Danger Ehren, and Preston Lacy returning and Jeff Tremaine directing. Surprisingly, critics have finally come around on the series' lowbrow brand of humor. At 88% on Rotten Tomatoes, it is the best reviewed film in the series by a large margin, beating the previous series best Jackass 3D (66%).
The film is opening in Australia, Bolivia, Ecuador, Iceland, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, and the United Kingdom, which make up around 68% of the planned international footprint. While the series’ international success has grown over the years from $15 million on the first film to circa $50 million for the third film and Bad Grandpa, the series has still performed much better with the home audience, with those last two installments only getting around a third of their gross from abroad.
Lionsgate’s Moonfall will likely come in at number two, but if it overperforms and Jackass underperforms we could see the films swap (and though it is unlikely, we shouldn’t totally count out Spider-Man coming in for an upset). Moonfall puts Roland Emmerich back in the sci-fi disaster genre that was his bread-and-butter with films such as Independence Day, The Day After Tomorrow, and 2012, this time with a story about the moon going out of alignment and heading on a collision course with Earth. Reviews are business as usual for Emmerich with a mixed-but-negative-leaning 44% on Rotten Tomatoes, though many critics praised the absurd rollercoaster ride charms of the film, which stars Halle Berry, Patrick Wilson, John Bradley, Michael Peña, Charlie Plummer, Kelly Yu, and Donald Sutherland.
Unlike Jackass, Moonfall should see the bulk of its gross come in from overseas, as is typical for disaster films. Emmerich’s 2012 saw 79% of its gross coming from international and for Independence Day: Resurgence it was 73%. A solid comp for Moonfall is the disaster film Geostorm from Emmerich’s old producing partner Dean Devlin. The Gerard Butler starrer opened to $13.7 million and grossed a total of $33.7 million domestically, but it made up for it with $188 million (85% of the total gross) coming in from international markets, including $65.7 million from China. With a chunk of Moonfall’s budget provided by Huayi Brothers, the film should get a China release.
Also going wide is The Wolf and the Lion from Blue Fox Entertainment. The animal adventure flick is from French director Gilles de Maistre, whose previous animal-themed film Mia and the White Lion was a global hit grossing $35.5 million, though it only tallied $399k in the US. The Wolf and the Lion is currently at $13.2 million internationally.
Neon is releasing The Worst Person in the World in limited. It is the third film in director Joachim Trier’s thematic “Oslo Trilogy'' after Reprise and Oslo, August 31st. The Worst Person in the World played in competition at Cannes in 2021 and it is Norway’s Oscar entry for the Best International Feature and has since made the shortlist. The much acclaimed film is at 99% on Rotten Tomatoes.
The biggest international box-office story of the weekend comes from China which just celebrated its New Year on Tuesday, February 1. The major new release Water Gate Bridge has a two day cume of $168 million. It is a sequel to The Battle at Lake Changjin, which was 2021’s second biggest global grosser and China’s highest-grossing film of all time. The second best two-day New Year gross came from Too Cool To Kill with $66.1 million, and Well Go USA is releasing the comedy in the U.S. on February 18th. Also notable among the new titles is Sniper, which is the latest film from arthouse favorite Zhang Yimou (Raise the Red Lantern, Hero), co-directed with his daughter Zhang Mo.
It may be a close match, but the weekend will likely go to Jackass Forever. Paramount is releasing the film on 3,600 screens and is expecting a gross in the mid-teens for the series’ fourth film (fifth when you count the associated Bad Grandpa). That would make it the weakest opening for the series (currently held by Jackass: The Movie’s $22 million opening), but there’s not much to worry about for a series that keeps its budgets low, in this case $10 million before P&A. The series has grown considerably from the first film’s $64.2 million domestic cume to the third’s $117 million, and though Forever will surely buck the upward trend, it can still be profitable even if it sets a new series low.
Fans can expect the fourth installment of Jackass to deliver on the series’ promise of irreverent and raunchy slapstick, with series regulars Johnny Knoxville, Steve-O, Wee Man, Chris Pontius, Dave England, Danger Ehren, and Preston Lacy returning and Jeff Tremaine directing. Surprisingly, critics have finally come around on the series' lowbrow brand of humor. At 88% on Rotten Tomatoes, it is the best reviewed film in the series by a large margin, beating the previous series best Jackass 3D (66%).
The film is opening in Australia, Bolivia, Ecuador, Iceland, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, and the United Kingdom, which make up around 68% of the planned international footprint. While the series’ international success has grown over the years from $15 million on the first film to circa $50 million for the third film and Bad Grandpa, the series has still performed much better with the home audience, with those last two installments only getting around a third of their gross from abroad.
Lionsgate’s Moonfall will likely come in at number two, but if it overperforms and Jackass underperforms we could see the films swap (and though it is unlikely, we shouldn’t totally count out Spider-Man coming in for an upset). Moonfall puts Roland Emmerich back in the sci-fi disaster genre that was his bread-and-butter with films such as Independence Day, The Day After Tomorrow, and 2012, this time with a story about the moon going out of alignment and heading on a collision course with Earth. Reviews are business as usual for Emmerich with a mixed-but-negative-leaning 44% on Rotten Tomatoes, though many critics praised the absurd rollercoaster ride charms of the film, which stars Halle Berry, Patrick Wilson, John Bradley, Michael Peña, Charlie Plummer, Kelly Yu, and Donald Sutherland.
Unlike Jackass, Moonfall should see the bulk of its gross come in from overseas, as is typical for disaster films. Emmerich’s 2012 saw 79% of its gross coming from international and for Independence Day: Resurgence it was 73%. A solid comp for Moonfall is the disaster film Geostorm from Emmerich’s old producing partner Dean Devlin. The Gerard Butler starrer opened to $13.7 million and grossed a total of $33.7 million domestically, but it made up for it with $188 million (85% of the total gross) coming in from international markets, including $65.7 million from China. With a chunk of Moonfall’s budget provided by Huayi Brothers, the film should get a China release.
Also going wide is The Wolf and the Lion from Blue Fox Entertainment. The animal adventure flick is from French director Gilles de Maistre, whose previous animal-themed film Mia and the White Lion was a global hit grossing $35.5 million, though it only tallied $399k in the US. The Wolf and the Lion is currently at $13.2 million internationally.
Neon is releasing The Worst Person in the World in limited. It is the third film in director Joachim Trier’s thematic “Oslo Trilogy'' after Reprise and Oslo, August 31st. The Worst Person in the World played in competition at Cannes in 2021 and it is Norway’s Oscar entry for the Best International Feature and has since made the shortlist. The much acclaimed film is at 99% on Rotten Tomatoes.
The biggest international box-office story of the weekend comes from China which just celebrated its New Year on Tuesday, February 1. The major new release Water Gate Bridge has a two day cume of $168 million. It is a sequel to The Battle at Lake Changjin, which was 2021’s second biggest global grosser and China’s highest-grossing film of all time. The second best two-day New Year gross came from Too Cool To Kill with $66.1 million, and Well Go USA is releasing the comedy in the U.S. on February 18th. Also notable among the new titles is Sniper, which is the latest film from arthouse favorite Zhang Yimou (Raise the Red Lantern, Hero), co-directed with his daughter Zhang Mo.
