Forecast


There sure has been a glut of horror pictures lately. The weird thing is that they haven't really cannibalized each other's box office. The Sixth Sense is the biggest new phenomenon since Titanic. The Blair Witch Project made a ton of dough before word-of-mouth killed it. Both The Haunting and Deep Blue Sea scored some strong business too. Only The Astronaut's Wife bombed, and that was perceived to be more on the sci-fi tip. Now this weekend sees not one, but two new horror pictures, Stigmata and Stir of Echoes. And if that wasn't enough, they are plenty more on the way.

I can't recall a time in recent movie history when horror pictures were more popular. Perhaps their sudden explosion can be attributed to the anxiety and superstition surrounding the end of the millennium. Most people believe in the supernatural, and this time has always been significant to religions. Hey, don't those freaky Jehovah's Witnesses believe that New Year's will be Judgment Day and are frantically hoping to be among the 144,000 that get to live in the new Garden of Eden? Not sure, it's been a while since I've perused a Watchtower magazine. Anyway, a more down-to-earth concern causing anxiety is the Y2K bug. These horror pictures may be tapping into all these fears and are appealing to many as a safe release.

The delayed Stigmata deals with demonic possession and addresses the whole millennial thing more directly than other recent offerings. Sure, it looks like an MTV version of The Exorcist. Sure, Gabriel Byrne and Patricia Arquette are box office poison. But Arquette's Linda Blair moment in the trailer seems to have captured the fancy of many. MGM is giving it a super-wide 2,899-theater release. That's mighty confident for such a traditionally slow weekend and with so much direct competition out there. Then again, 1999 has been a rule-breaking year. This move should pay off handsomely… for the first few days at least. It even has a shot at dethroning The Sixth Sense.

That leaves Stir of Echoes with not much of an audience. The ad campaign has done little more than make it look too similar to The Sixth Sense. Kevin Bacon may be considered the center of the universe, but he cannot carry a picture on his own. So Artisan will not be recreating its Blair Witch success. Playing at 1,888 theaters, they should see only modest numbers this time out.

Whenever a movie has a negative title, it almost invariably becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy at the box office. Love Stinks should not be an exception. I think it's the first theatrical release from Independent Artists, who will likely end up being dependent on the government if they keep putting out crap like this. French Stewart headlines, but the ratings for his show 3rd Rock From the Sun hit rock bottom this past season. So if people won't watch Stewart on TV for free, it's doubtful they'll pay to see him either. It's surprising that the distributor doesn't promote co-stars Bill Bellamy and Tyra Banks more, who are arguably more bankable. What's even more surprising is that they're putting this thing out at a modestly wide 1,325 theaters. And you thought A Dog of Flanders had a low per theater average.

Editor's Note: Articles published before 2001 were assigned and reported as box office briefings, not a full evaluation or analysis.