The spin is well underway… "Audiences go Wild over West." "Wild Wild West provides box office fireworks." "West is Best." The Warner Bros. distribution president was quoted as saying "We are very, very pleased with the gross." The second "very" was probably added to convince himself more than us.

Contrary to the headlines, contrary to Access Hollywood and its ilk, contrary to what the WB wants you to believe, the fact of the matter is that Wild Wild West is one hell of a disappointment. The picture grossed $27.7 million over the weekend ($49.7 million the first six days), far short of Independence Day's and Men in Black's $50 million + weekends. You know the studio was hoping for an opening similar to those previous Will Smith July 4th bonanzas. They wouldn't have spent over $200 million in production and marketing costs if they didn't. They wouldn't have given it the widest opening weekend release ever (3,342 theaters) if they didn't.

Up until now, every major summer release has had a huge opening weekend. Something had to give. The box office pie was not going to expand much further, and Wild Wild West became the first major casuality.

Meanwhile, South Park grossed $11.3 million over the three-day weekend ($23.1 million it's first six days). The daily pattern suggests that it will burn out quickly as pictures with cult followings usually do. However, with a production budget of $21 million, it will be profitable, whereas Wild Wild West will probably not.

Forecast: My accuracy this week was below my average. As a consolation prize, my three-day predictions for the openers would have been near perfect had they been four-day predictions. I said $37.5 million for Wild Wild West, and it made $36.4 million. I said $14.5 million for South Park, and it made $14.8 million. I said $8 million for Summer of Sam, and it made $8 million. I wasn't certain that Monday was a day-off as it wasn't labeled on my calendar, so that clouded my vision of the number of days that should have been attributed to each prediction.

Editor's Note: Articles published before 2001 were assigned and reported as box office briefings, not a full evaluation or analysis.