Forecast: 'Dolphin Tale,' 'No Good Deed' to Lead Another Quiet Weekend
Dolphin Tale 2 and No Good Deed could be in a tight race for first place over what will probably be another slow weekend at the domestic box office.
According to online ticket seller Fandango, these two new releases have sold essentially the same number of tickets headed in to the weekend. An opening in the $15 to $20 million range seems likely for both titles.
At 3,656 locations, Dolphin Tale 2 reaches theaters almost exactly three years after the original Dolphin Tale became a minor hit with family audiences. After opening to a solid $19.2 million, the movie held well and ended its run with $72.3 million.
It would be surprising if Dolphin Tale 2 replicated the first movie's success. The movie looks mostly redundant: the only noticeable change is that a new dolphin is added to the mix. Also, the "based on a true story" angle, which was a key selling point for the first movie, isn't front-and-center this time around. Finally, the first Dolphin Tale had the benefit of 3D ticket pricing, whereas Dolphin Tale 2 does not.
Dolphin Tale 2 is the latest in a flurry of family sequels to hit theaters in the past 12 months. All five previous movies—Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2, Muppets Most Wanted, Rio 2, How to Train Your Dragon 2 and Planes: Fire & Rescue—earned less than their predecessor over the long run. From an opening weekend perspective, its more mixed: Cloudy 2 and Dragon 2 opened higher and Rio 2 was on par, while Muppets and Planes were lower.
Warner Bros. is expecting Dolphin Tale 2 to open at around the same level ($19 million) as the first installment. Meanwhile, Fandango is reporting that the sequel is out-selling its predecessor.
Playing at 2,175 theaters, No Good Deed has a solid shot at taking first place ahead of Dolphin Tale 2 this weekend. The home invasion thriller stars Idris Elba and Taraji P. Henson, two actors who have each developed a following over the past decade or so.
This isn't Elba's first Screen Gems thriller: he also starred in 2009's Obsessed, which opened to $28.6 million on its way to $68.3 million total. No Good Deed also shares a producer with Obsessed (Will Packer), and that connection is called out in the movie's marketing material. Its unreasonable to assume that No Good Deed can open that high: Obsessed featured superstar Beyonce in one of her rare big-screen appearances, which surely gave the movie some added appeal.
A closer comparison is last year's The Call, which was also released by Sony (via their TriStar label). Similar to No Good Deed, it featured a female protagonist (Halle Berry) trying to resolve a life-threatening situation in a confined setting (in this case, an emergency call center). That movie opened to $17.1 million, which would be a nice number for No Good Deed.
Fox Searchlight is releasing crime drama The Drop at 809 theaters this weekend. The movie has received solid reviews—as of Thursday, it had a 78 percent rating on Rotten Tomatoes—and could benefit from curiosity surrounding James Gandolfini's final performance.
A comparison could be drawn to July's A Most Wanted Man, which featured Philip Seymour Hoffman's final leading role. That movie opened to $2.7 million from half as many locations; while The Drop might not match that, it still seems like a safe bet to hit $2 million this weekend.
The Skeleton Twins, starring Kristen Wiig and Bill Hader, opens at 15 theaters this weekend. Meanwhile, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby, starring Jessica Chastain and James McAvoy, opens at four theaters. This is the combined version of the two-part experimental movie; the individual installments ("Him" and "Her") are theoretically going to be available soon, though the Weinstein Company hasn't set an official date yet.
The final installment in the Atlas Shrugged trilogy opens at around 240 theaters this weekend. While the Ayn Rand novel is massively popular, the movies haven't really been able to capitalize on that: the first two installments combined to earn less than $8 million at the domestic box office.
With a new, lesser-known cast this time around, it would be surprising if Atlas Shrugged Part III: Who Is John Galt? bucked this trend. Still, diehard Rand enthusiasts could rush out to theaters this weekend and get the movie close to $1 million (the previous two movies opened to $1.69 million and $1.75 million, respectively).
Forecast (Sept. 12-14)
1. No Good Deed - $19 million
2. Dolphin Tale 2 - $17 million
3. Guardians - $6.9 million (-33%)
Bar for Success
Dolphin Tale 2 doesn't need to match its predecessor, but it should be opening close (at least $15 million). Meanwhile, No Good Deed is in fine shape if it hits $15 million.
Discuss this story with fellow Box Office Mojo fans on Facebook. On Twitter, follow us at @boxofficemojo, and follow author Ray Subers at @raysubers.
Related Stories:
• Last Weekend's Forecast: 'Guardians' Set to Three-peat Against 'The Identical'
• Last Weekend's Report: 'Guardians' Holds Top Spot on Slowest Weekend in Six Years
According to online ticket seller Fandango, these two new releases have sold essentially the same number of tickets headed in to the weekend. An opening in the $15 to $20 million range seems likely for both titles.
At 3,656 locations, Dolphin Tale 2 reaches theaters almost exactly three years after the original Dolphin Tale became a minor hit with family audiences. After opening to a solid $19.2 million, the movie held well and ended its run with $72.3 million.
It would be surprising if Dolphin Tale 2 replicated the first movie's success. The movie looks mostly redundant: the only noticeable change is that a new dolphin is added to the mix. Also, the "based on a true story" angle, which was a key selling point for the first movie, isn't front-and-center this time around. Finally, the first Dolphin Tale had the benefit of 3D ticket pricing, whereas Dolphin Tale 2 does not.
Dolphin Tale 2 is the latest in a flurry of family sequels to hit theaters in the past 12 months. All five previous movies—Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2, Muppets Most Wanted, Rio 2, How to Train Your Dragon 2 and Planes: Fire & Rescue—earned less than their predecessor over the long run. From an opening weekend perspective, its more mixed: Cloudy 2 and Dragon 2 opened higher and Rio 2 was on par, while Muppets and Planes were lower.
Warner Bros. is expecting Dolphin Tale 2 to open at around the same level ($19 million) as the first installment. Meanwhile, Fandango is reporting that the sequel is out-selling its predecessor.
Playing at 2,175 theaters, No Good Deed has a solid shot at taking first place ahead of Dolphin Tale 2 this weekend. The home invasion thriller stars Idris Elba and Taraji P. Henson, two actors who have each developed a following over the past decade or so.
This isn't Elba's first Screen Gems thriller: he also starred in 2009's Obsessed, which opened to $28.6 million on its way to $68.3 million total. No Good Deed also shares a producer with Obsessed (Will Packer), and that connection is called out in the movie's marketing material. Its unreasonable to assume that No Good Deed can open that high: Obsessed featured superstar Beyonce in one of her rare big-screen appearances, which surely gave the movie some added appeal.
A closer comparison is last year's The Call, which was also released by Sony (via their TriStar label). Similar to No Good Deed, it featured a female protagonist (Halle Berry) trying to resolve a life-threatening situation in a confined setting (in this case, an emergency call center). That movie opened to $17.1 million, which would be a nice number for No Good Deed.
Fox Searchlight is releasing crime drama The Drop at 809 theaters this weekend. The movie has received solid reviews—as of Thursday, it had a 78 percent rating on Rotten Tomatoes—and could benefit from curiosity surrounding James Gandolfini's final performance.
A comparison could be drawn to July's A Most Wanted Man, which featured Philip Seymour Hoffman's final leading role. That movie opened to $2.7 million from half as many locations; while The Drop might not match that, it still seems like a safe bet to hit $2 million this weekend.
The Skeleton Twins, starring Kristen Wiig and Bill Hader, opens at 15 theaters this weekend. Meanwhile, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby, starring Jessica Chastain and James McAvoy, opens at four theaters. This is the combined version of the two-part experimental movie; the individual installments ("Him" and "Her") are theoretically going to be available soon, though the Weinstein Company hasn't set an official date yet.
The final installment in the Atlas Shrugged trilogy opens at around 240 theaters this weekend. While the Ayn Rand novel is massively popular, the movies haven't really been able to capitalize on that: the first two installments combined to earn less than $8 million at the domestic box office.
With a new, lesser-known cast this time around, it would be surprising if Atlas Shrugged Part III: Who Is John Galt? bucked this trend. Still, diehard Rand enthusiasts could rush out to theaters this weekend and get the movie close to $1 million (the previous two movies opened to $1.69 million and $1.75 million, respectively).
Forecast (Sept. 12-14)
1. No Good Deed - $19 million
2. Dolphin Tale 2 - $17 million
3. Guardians - $6.9 million (-33%)
Bar for Success
Dolphin Tale 2 doesn't need to match its predecessor, but it should be opening close (at least $15 million). Meanwhile, No Good Deed is in fine shape if it hits $15 million.
Discuss this story with fellow Box Office Mojo fans on Facebook. On Twitter, follow us at @boxofficemojo, and follow author Ray Subers at @raysubers.
Related Stories:
• Last Weekend's Forecast: 'Guardians' Set to Three-peat Against 'The Identical'
• Last Weekend's Report: 'Guardians' Holds Top Spot on Slowest Weekend in Six Years
