Forecast
The Blair Witch Project phenomenon was over shortly after it began in the summer of 1999. Its first weekend of wide release generated an astonishing $29.2 million from just 1,101 theaters. Then the backlash started once people got to see what the hype was all about. It expanded to 2,142 theaters on the next weekend, yet business dipped to $24.3 million. Precipitous drops followed, though those early weeks were so strong that it reached $140.5 million total.
Understandably, distributor Artisan wanted to start a franchise from this, kind of like Miramax and its Scream flicks. Most of their pictures don't make money anyway (The Way of the Gun, Dr. T & the Women). Hence the appearance of Book of Shadows, a little over a year later. Overly bullish and blind to the public's sentiment towards the original, Artisan is reportedly expecting a $30 million opening, even giving the picture the fifth widest launch of all time, 3,317 theaters. With a negative cost likely around $35 million ($10 million of which for production), profitability at least by its ancillary runs is virtually guaranteed. However, the sequel appears destined to make only a fraction of the first. It comes off as a generic teen slasher flick in the ads, sans the first person, shaky camera gimmickry of the original. This could alienate the few hard core fans, though make it more palatable and less motion sickness inducing to the mainstream. One thing's for sure, people are no longer confused about whether it's real or not, further lessening potential. After all, that mystery is what attracted people to begin with. Halloween should help though, especially since it doesn't land on the weekend. Last year, House on Haunted Hill scored a record opening for this frame ($15.9 million) with the holiday falling on its Sunday. All of these factors could amount to an opening in the high teens and first place for Blair Witch 2, though 50%-plus drops will likely follow.
Lucky Numbers was pushed back from a July release date to distance itself from the atomic stink bomb that was John Travolta's Battlefield Earth. However, test screenings were generating a sizable stench in their own right. This date was picked and the marketing campaign tuned to replicate Travolta's Get Shorty success from about the same period in 1995. Commercials have been aggressively running for weeks now, seemingly more ubiquitous than those for the Blair Witch sequel have been. Travolta and director Nora Ephron (You've Got Mail) previously had an unlikely hit in 1996's Michael, but that opened over the Christmas holidays and was in the star's prime. The reunion of the portly Scientologist and the saccharine, hack helmer has a much greater uphill battle, exacerbated by an ad campaign that doesn't generate laughs, unlikable characters, critical revilement, and competition from Meet the Parents and Bedazzled. Attempting to rig 2,497 play-dates, Numbers could come up with an unlucky opening in the $8 million range.
Instead of going straight-to-video or premiering on the Disney channel, The Little Vampire gets a rather wide release for its genre, 2,009 theaters. There's even been commercials running in prime time. Needless to say, pictures appealing solely to tykes tend to not open strongly. Digimon was the last casualty, with a $4.2 million debut. Then again, they can occasionally surprise such as last year's Baby Geniuses, which opened to $5.6 million and clung to screens until it reached $27.2 million. Vampire could suck up around $3 million, enough for seventh place in this weak marketplace.
