Forecast (cont.): 'Big Hero 6' On Track to Open Above 2012's 'Wreck-It Ralph'
<< Continued from Weekend Forecast
Opening at around 3,700 theaters, Big Hero 6 could wind up in first place ahead of Interstellar this weekend.
Big Hero 6 marks the fourth movie in Disney Animation's recent renaissance: it follows 2010's Tangled, 2012's Wreck-It Ralph and 2013's Frozen. While Ralph and Tangled were both hits—each earned over $185 million in the U.S.—they pale in comparison to Frozen. The animated sensation earned over $400 million domestically, which is tops for an animated non-sequel in its initial run (The Lion King ranks ahead of it thanks to a 3D re-release).
Disney is hoping that the critical and commercial success of these recent outings helps propel Big Hero 6: virtually every piece of marketing for the movie makes sure to remind viewers that it's from "the creators of Wreck-It Ralph and Frozen."
The other key strategy in Disney's Big Hero 6 marketing effort is a focus on one particular member of the titular superhero team. That character, of course, is an inflatable, overweight robot named Baymax, who appears to provide much of the movie's comic relief. Focusing on a unique, funny supporting character has been a tenet of many successful animated campaigns: Despicable Me had the Minions, Frozen had Olaf, and now Big Hero 6 has Baymax.
The opening weekend record for a non-sequel computer animated movie belongs to The Incredibles, which opened to $70.5 million on this same weekend a decade ago. With ticket price inflation, the addition of 3D premiums, and a Disney Animation brand that's arguably close to Pixar circa 2004, Big Hero 6 has an off-chance of matching that figure.
According to Fandango, Big Hero 6 is outselling Tangled and Wreck-It Ralph, which opened to $49 million on this same weekend in 2012. Ultimately, Big Hero 6 will likely wind up somewhere in between Ralph and The Incredibles ($70.5 million) this weekend.
The weekend's only major limited release is Stephen Hawking biopic The Theory of Everything, which is opening at five locations in New York and Los Angeles. The movie is receiving strong reviews (86 percent on Rotten Tomatoes) and plenty of awards buzz for lead actors Eddie Redmayne and Felicity Jones. Look for a per-theater average of at least $40,000 this weekend.
Forecast (November 7-9)
1. Big Hero 6 - $60 million
2. Interstellar - $58 million ($62 million five-day)
Bar for Success
For the five-day frame, Interstellar needs to open at least on par with Inception's three-day weekend ($62.8 million). Meanwhile, Big Hero 6 needs to at least match Wreck-It Ralph's $49 million.
Discuss this story with fellow Box Office Mojo fans on Facebook. On Twitter, follow us at @boxofficemojo, and follow author Ray Subers at @raysubers.
Related Stories:
• Last Weekend's Report: 'Nightcrawler,' 'Ouija' in Dead Heat Over Halloween
• Last Weekend's Forecast: 'Nightcrawler' to Race in to First Over Halloween Weekend
Opening at around 3,700 theaters, Big Hero 6 could wind up in first place ahead of Interstellar this weekend.
Big Hero 6 marks the fourth movie in Disney Animation's recent renaissance: it follows 2010's Tangled, 2012's Wreck-It Ralph and 2013's Frozen. While Ralph and Tangled were both hits—each earned over $185 million in the U.S.—they pale in comparison to Frozen. The animated sensation earned over $400 million domestically, which is tops for an animated non-sequel in its initial run (The Lion King ranks ahead of it thanks to a 3D re-release).
Disney is hoping that the critical and commercial success of these recent outings helps propel Big Hero 6: virtually every piece of marketing for the movie makes sure to remind viewers that it's from "the creators of Wreck-It Ralph and Frozen."
The other key strategy in Disney's Big Hero 6 marketing effort is a focus on one particular member of the titular superhero team. That character, of course, is an inflatable, overweight robot named Baymax, who appears to provide much of the movie's comic relief. Focusing on a unique, funny supporting character has been a tenet of many successful animated campaigns: Despicable Me had the Minions, Frozen had Olaf, and now Big Hero 6 has Baymax.
The opening weekend record for a non-sequel computer animated movie belongs to The Incredibles, which opened to $70.5 million on this same weekend a decade ago. With ticket price inflation, the addition of 3D premiums, and a Disney Animation brand that's arguably close to Pixar circa 2004, Big Hero 6 has an off-chance of matching that figure.
According to Fandango, Big Hero 6 is outselling Tangled and Wreck-It Ralph, which opened to $49 million on this same weekend in 2012. Ultimately, Big Hero 6 will likely wind up somewhere in between Ralph and The Incredibles ($70.5 million) this weekend.
The weekend's only major limited release is Stephen Hawking biopic The Theory of Everything, which is opening at five locations in New York and Los Angeles. The movie is receiving strong reviews (86 percent on Rotten Tomatoes) and plenty of awards buzz for lead actors Eddie Redmayne and Felicity Jones. Look for a per-theater average of at least $40,000 this weekend.
Forecast (November 7-9)
1. Big Hero 6 - $60 million
2. Interstellar - $58 million ($62 million five-day)
Bar for Success
For the five-day frame, Interstellar needs to open at least on par with Inception's three-day weekend ($62.8 million). Meanwhile, Big Hero 6 needs to at least match Wreck-It Ralph's $49 million.
Discuss this story with fellow Box Office Mojo fans on Facebook. On Twitter, follow us at @boxofficemojo, and follow author Ray Subers at @raysubers.
Related Stories:
• Last Weekend's Report: 'Nightcrawler,' 'Ouija' in Dead Heat Over Halloween
• Last Weekend's Forecast: 'Nightcrawler' to Race in to First Over Halloween Weekend
