'Nope' To Score Biggest Original Opening Since Start Of The Pandemic
As the summer winds down, the stream of major franchise films has dried up, but there are still a few high profile releases left to beef up the box office and hopefully keep the overall weekend grosses above $100 million for another three weeks. The biggest of these titles is Nope, the latest horror film from Jordan Peele, who is one of the few brand-name directors in the business. With the Universal film a sure shot for the top slot, the studio should have four films in the top ten this weekend, with Minions: The Rise of Gru likely in third place and The Black Phone and Jurassic World Dominion towards the end of the list.
The UFO-themed Nope, which opens in 3,700 theaters, stars Daniel Kaluuya, Keke Palmer, and Steven Yeun (all Peele alum in some capacity) as horse ranchers/wranglers and a theme park owner respectively who witness some mysterious and bizarre happenings in their area. The film hopes to continue Jordan Peele’s hot streak after Get Out ($176 million domestic, $255.4 million worldwide) and Us ($175 million domestic, $255.1 million worldwide) made the sketch comedy star into one of Hollywood’s top directors. If Nope can match the Peele-standard of roughly $175 million, it will be the highest grossing original film domestically since Us in spring 2019 (the highest since then is 1917 with $158 million).
In all likelihood, Nope will become the top domestic grossing original film since the start of the pandemic, a title currently held by Free Guy with $122 million (unless you count the $149 million grosser Uncharted, which is not a sequel but is based on a hugely popular video game franchise), and it will certainly be the top-grossing post-pandemic R-rated film (none have even crossed $100 million). As far as openings go, Uncharted ($44 million) had the biggest since the pandemic began for a film not connected to a pre-existing major film franchise, Dune ($41 million) had the biggest for a film not connected to a pre-existing major film or video game franchise, and if you exclude bestselling book series as well then the biggest was Jungle Cruise ($35 million). Take out movies based on theme park rides and the biggest original opener was Elvis ($31.2 million), and take out biopics of hugely successful musicians and we’re left with The Lost City, which opened to $30.4 million. However you slice it, the past few years have not been great for original films, and Nope feels like a comeback for the “genre.”
While both Get Out and Us were well received by critics (98% on Rotten Tomatoes for Get Out, which also got Oscar noms for best director and picture and won for original screenplay, and 93% on RT for Us), audiences took to Get Out, which received an A- CinemaScore, but not to Us, which got a B CinemaScore. This was reflected in the box office, with Get Out having an exceptional multiplier of 5.27 after its strong $33.7 million opening. The goodwill from Get Out led to Us nabbing one of the biggest openings ever for an original film with $71.1 million, but it ended up with a multiplier of just 2.46, finishing practically on par with Get Out despite more than doubling its opening. The hope is that audiences let down by Us will still give Nope a chance, and the film is expected to open somewhere between Peele's prior outings. Nope is at 82% on Rotten Tomatoes, which is certainly a positive sign, but the more important question is whether the audience response will again diverge from critics.
Despite being something of a disappointment in terms of the audience response and the legs, Us was still undoubtedly a success, and Peele remained a filmmaker worth betting on. Universal is doubling down with Nope, which has a $68 million budget compared to $4.5 million on Get Out and $20 million on Us. The low budgets meant Peele’s earlier films were hugely profitable, while the significantly larger budget on Nope means the margins are bound to be much lower, though it is still likely to make its money back assuming it doesn’t fall considerably short of Peele’s earlier grosses. The larger scale of Nope may help it abroad, where Peele’s previous films have made less than one-third of their money, and it may also get a nice IMAX boost, being the rare non-Nolan film to shoot with IMAX’s 65mm cameras.
Beyond Nope, the Hindi language film Shamshera is the only newcomer likely to crack the top ten. Otherwise, it’s all about the holdovers this weekend, and there are a few key performances to keep an eye out for. After its 67.7% weekend two decline, we will see if Thor: Love and Thunder can stabilize and keep its lead over Thor: Ragnarok (L&T has a 12-day cume of $246 million compared to Ragnarok’s $220 million) or if it will continue to drop large and narrow the gap with its better-received and better-holding predecessor.
This is also the second weekend of Where the Crawdads Sing, which had a surprisingly strong $17.3 million opening. We’ll find out this weekend if the adaptation of the literary sensation was front-loaded by fans or if the word of mouth will turn it into a solid mid-budget hit, which we’ve seen too few of in recent years.
Finally, there’s the year’s biggest hit Top Gun: Maverick which this week has entered the top ten of the all time domestic box office. In ninth place, having knocked Star Wars: Episode VIII - The Last Jedi out of the top ten and displaced The Avengers, the beloved Tom Cruise sequel will enter the weekend around $27 million (give or take) off from Jurassic World with $653 million, and after that it needs just $6 million more to sink Titanic. Both outcomes seem likely, though outflying Avengers: Infinity War (sixth place with $679 million) and Black Panther (fifth place with $700 million) are trickier maneuvers. Still, Maverick has already smashed all expectations, and cracking the top five is certainly possible.
The UFO-themed Nope, which opens in 3,700 theaters, stars Daniel Kaluuya, Keke Palmer, and Steven Yeun (all Peele alum in some capacity) as horse ranchers/wranglers and a theme park owner respectively who witness some mysterious and bizarre happenings in their area. The film hopes to continue Jordan Peele’s hot streak after Get Out ($176 million domestic, $255.4 million worldwide) and Us ($175 million domestic, $255.1 million worldwide) made the sketch comedy star into one of Hollywood’s top directors. If Nope can match the Peele-standard of roughly $175 million, it will be the highest grossing original film domestically since Us in spring 2019 (the highest since then is 1917 with $158 million).
In all likelihood, Nope will become the top domestic grossing original film since the start of the pandemic, a title currently held by Free Guy with $122 million (unless you count the $149 million grosser Uncharted, which is not a sequel but is based on a hugely popular video game franchise), and it will certainly be the top-grossing post-pandemic R-rated film (none have even crossed $100 million). As far as openings go, Uncharted ($44 million) had the biggest since the pandemic began for a film not connected to a pre-existing major film franchise, Dune ($41 million) had the biggest for a film not connected to a pre-existing major film or video game franchise, and if you exclude bestselling book series as well then the biggest was Jungle Cruise ($35 million). Take out movies based on theme park rides and the biggest original opener was Elvis ($31.2 million), and take out biopics of hugely successful musicians and we’re left with The Lost City, which opened to $30.4 million. However you slice it, the past few years have not been great for original films, and Nope feels like a comeback for the “genre.”
While both Get Out and Us were well received by critics (98% on Rotten Tomatoes for Get Out, which also got Oscar noms for best director and picture and won for original screenplay, and 93% on RT for Us), audiences took to Get Out, which received an A- CinemaScore, but not to Us, which got a B CinemaScore. This was reflected in the box office, with Get Out having an exceptional multiplier of 5.27 after its strong $33.7 million opening. The goodwill from Get Out led to Us nabbing one of the biggest openings ever for an original film with $71.1 million, but it ended up with a multiplier of just 2.46, finishing practically on par with Get Out despite more than doubling its opening. The hope is that audiences let down by Us will still give Nope a chance, and the film is expected to open somewhere between Peele's prior outings. Nope is at 82% on Rotten Tomatoes, which is certainly a positive sign, but the more important question is whether the audience response will again diverge from critics.
Despite being something of a disappointment in terms of the audience response and the legs, Us was still undoubtedly a success, and Peele remained a filmmaker worth betting on. Universal is doubling down with Nope, which has a $68 million budget compared to $4.5 million on Get Out and $20 million on Us. The low budgets meant Peele’s earlier films were hugely profitable, while the significantly larger budget on Nope means the margins are bound to be much lower, though it is still likely to make its money back assuming it doesn’t fall considerably short of Peele’s earlier grosses. The larger scale of Nope may help it abroad, where Peele’s previous films have made less than one-third of their money, and it may also get a nice IMAX boost, being the rare non-Nolan film to shoot with IMAX’s 65mm cameras.
Beyond Nope, the Hindi language film Shamshera is the only newcomer likely to crack the top ten. Otherwise, it’s all about the holdovers this weekend, and there are a few key performances to keep an eye out for. After its 67.7% weekend two decline, we will see if Thor: Love and Thunder can stabilize and keep its lead over Thor: Ragnarok (L&T has a 12-day cume of $246 million compared to Ragnarok’s $220 million) or if it will continue to drop large and narrow the gap with its better-received and better-holding predecessor.
This is also the second weekend of Where the Crawdads Sing, which had a surprisingly strong $17.3 million opening. We’ll find out this weekend if the adaptation of the literary sensation was front-loaded by fans or if the word of mouth will turn it into a solid mid-budget hit, which we’ve seen too few of in recent years.
Finally, there’s the year’s biggest hit Top Gun: Maverick which this week has entered the top ten of the all time domestic box office. In ninth place, having knocked Star Wars: Episode VIII - The Last Jedi out of the top ten and displaced The Avengers, the beloved Tom Cruise sequel will enter the weekend around $27 million (give or take) off from Jurassic World with $653 million, and after that it needs just $6 million more to sink Titanic. Both outcomes seem likely, though outflying Avengers: Infinity War (sixth place with $679 million) and Black Panther (fifth place with $700 million) are trickier maneuvers. Still, Maverick has already smashed all expectations, and cracking the top five is certainly possible.
