Weekend Forecast: 'Ninja Turtles 2' Look to Take Down 'X-Men'
Saturday AM Update: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows topped Friday estimates with $12.5 million, which included $2 million from Thursday night previews. The film is now trending toward an opening weekend anywhere from $32-35 million.
Warner's Me Before You is performing above expectations, hauling in an estimated $7.75 million on Friday, heading toward a weekend that could top $18 million. The film received an "A" CinemaScore and the $7.75 million Friday is pretty much right on par with 2009's Time Traveler's Wife, which opened with $18.6 million.
The weekend's other new wide release, Universal's Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping, is pretty much right on expectations, bringing in an estimated $1.77 million on Friday, heading toward a weekend around $4.5-5 million.
You can click here for a complete look at the Friday estimates and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete weekend wrap-up.
Friday AM Update: Thursday night preshow results are in and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows lead the way with a soft $2 million compared to the $4.6 million the first Turtles feature brought in from preview screenings in August 2014. A good comparison would be 2014's Hercules, which brought in $2.1 million before opening with $29.8 million. Another would be Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials which brought in $1.7 million on Thursday night before delivering a $30.3 million opening last September.
Warner's Me Before You got off to a solid start, bringing in $1.365 million on Thursday night. Comparisons within the genre are limited with films such as The Longest Ride bringing in $625,000 from Thursday night showings and The Best of Me bringing in $525,000. Perhaps the best comparison is one of the comps used below in our weekend preview, that being If I Stay, which brought in $1.1 million back in August 2014 before opening with $15.6 million, a number that already suggests Me Before You could outperform Mojo's weekend prediction.
Finally, Universal's Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping brought in $322,000, on par with the likes of Pride and Prejudice and Zombies ($300k) and Whiskey Tango Foxtrot ($300k), which went on to open with $5.3 million and $7.4 million respectively. If you're open to wishful thinking, Horrible Bosses did begin its opening weekend with $365,000 on Thursday night before opening with $28.3 million, but that's not happening with Popstar, though with 78 reviews now counted and the RottenTomatoes score holding at 79% this one could earn strong word of mouth and also perform better than expected.
This weekend's preview is directly below, we'll be back tomorrow with Friday estimates.
WEEKEND PREVIEW:
A pair of sequels in X-Men: Apocalypse and Alice Through the Looking Glass led a soft Memorial Day weekend last week and things aren't looking much better this weekend. Paramount is delivering its own sequel this weekend in the form of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows while Warner Bros. targets the romantics among us with Me Before You and Universal's Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping, which is merely hoping to keep its head above water. Over the past five years, the weekend following Memorial Day has seen an average drop of 18.7% for the top twelve. At this time, projections are looking at a drop just a bit higher, right around 20%, a percentage that could easily improve should Turtles 2 or last weekend's newcomers outperform expectations.
Opening in 4,071 theaters, Paramount is estimating a $35-40 million opening weekend for Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2. It's an estimate that seems just about on target given the performance of both Apocalypse and Alice last weekend not to mention sequels such as The Huntsman: Winter's War, Ride Along 2, Allegiant, etc. as the list goes on and on as one sequel after another opens well below its predecessor.
As for the newly relaunched Turtles franchise, 2014's feature did manage to score $65.5 million back in August 2014, but a "B" CinemaScore, 5.9 rating on IMDb and a 51% audience reaction on RottenTomatoes doesn't exactly suggest a sequel is what audiences were clamoring for. As of publication, the sequel was carrying a weary 30% on RottenTomatoes and has still yet to crack the top ten on the IMDb MOVIEMeter, while the original was within (or just outside of) the top ten several weeks ahead of release.
A likely scenario would be for the sequel to deliver an opening weekend performance within the same range as 2012's Wrath of the Titans when compared to 2010's Clash of the Titans. Clash opened with $61.2 million while Wrath saw diminishing returns right out of the gate, opening 45.3% less than the original with $33.4 million. Should Turtles 2 perform similarly it would be within the range of Paramount's expectations, delivering a $35.8 million opening. A similar comparison would be Scooby-Doo and its sequel, which also saw a 45% opening weekend drop from one to the other, again suggesting a $35 million opening should Turtles 2 follow suit.
The Clash/Wrath comparison feels solid, especially given Clash also received a "B" CinemaScore and currently holds a 5.8 user rating on IMDb. Right now, a forecast anywhere from $33-36 million seems safe, while anything at or above $40 million would make the overall weekend look much better, not to mention the Turtles franchise given the $135 million price tag on this latest installment.
Looking at a second place finish is last weekend's #1 feature, X-Men: Apocalypse, which is likely looking at a 60%+ drop this weekend. X-Men: First Class dipped 56.2% in its second weekend while X-Men: Days of Future Past fell 64.2%. The comparison to Future Past is more apt given both films opened on Memorial Day weekend and if you wanted to remain a little more positive you could compare to MIB 3 and a drop around 54%, but Mojo is forecasting a second weekend closer to $24 million rather than $30 million as the MIB comparison would suggest.
Eying a third place finish is Warner's romantic offering, Me Before You. The New Line and MGM co-production is an adaptation of Jojo Moyes's novel starring Emilia Clarke ("Game of Thrones") and Sam Claflin (The Hunger Games franchise) and cost roughly $20 million to produce. Films of this nature tend to open right around $12-14 million, which is exactly what WB is expecting from its 2,704 theaters. There is some potential for it to break a bit higher, but with comps such as The Age of Adaline and If I Stay, an opening right around $14 million seems like a strong bet.
Next we come to last weekend's biggest disappointment, Disney's Alice Through the Looking Glass. Heading into last weekend with expectations as lofty as $60 million for the four-day, the film managed only $33.5 million. Working in the film's favor is an "A-" CinemaScore from opening night audiences, but given the fact the Memorial Day weekend exhausted a large portion of the film's "first choice" audience it's potential for a satisfying hold is limited. A drop around 50%+ is what we're looking at and while it could battle Me Before You for third position it's more likely to finish fourth with around $12-13 million.
The weekend's other new wide release is Universal's Lonely Island spoof Popstar featuring Andy Samberg as former boy band member Conner4Real. So far the reviews have been strong with a current rating of 80% on RottenTomatoes with more than 50 reviews counted. Where the film runs into trouble is in its demographic as it's tracking strong among younger males, an audience that also has Turtles 2, X-Men and Captain America to consider. A weekend in the low, single digit millions is expected, perhaps topping out at $6 million if things go really well.
Love & Friendship will be battling for a second weekend in the top ten as it expands once again, this time into 819 theaters (+326). It will be neck-and-neck between the Whit Stillman comedy and WB's The Nice Guys, both of which should finish around $2.9 million.
Also continuing its expansion, A24's The Lobster will now be featured in 560 theaters (+444). It's tough to predict just how well it will perform, but using expansion performances from the likes of The Railway Man, Whiplash and The Lady in the Van suggest a weekend around $1.3-1.6 million is possible.
This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.
Discuss this story with fellow Box Office Mojo fans on Facebook. On Twitter, follow us at @boxofficemojo and author Brad Brevet at @bradbrevet.
Warner's Me Before You is performing above expectations, hauling in an estimated $7.75 million on Friday, heading toward a weekend that could top $18 million. The film received an "A" CinemaScore and the $7.75 million Friday is pretty much right on par with 2009's Time Traveler's Wife, which opened with $18.6 million.
The weekend's other new wide release, Universal's Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping, is pretty much right on expectations, bringing in an estimated $1.77 million on Friday, heading toward a weekend around $4.5-5 million.
You can click here for a complete look at the Friday estimates and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete weekend wrap-up.
Friday AM Update: Thursday night preshow results are in and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows lead the way with a soft $2 million compared to the $4.6 million the first Turtles feature brought in from preview screenings in August 2014. A good comparison would be 2014's Hercules, which brought in $2.1 million before opening with $29.8 million. Another would be Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials which brought in $1.7 million on Thursday night before delivering a $30.3 million opening last September.
Warner's Me Before You got off to a solid start, bringing in $1.365 million on Thursday night. Comparisons within the genre are limited with films such as The Longest Ride bringing in $625,000 from Thursday night showings and The Best of Me bringing in $525,000. Perhaps the best comparison is one of the comps used below in our weekend preview, that being If I Stay, which brought in $1.1 million back in August 2014 before opening with $15.6 million, a number that already suggests Me Before You could outperform Mojo's weekend prediction.
Finally, Universal's Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping brought in $322,000, on par with the likes of Pride and Prejudice and Zombies ($300k) and Whiskey Tango Foxtrot ($300k), which went on to open with $5.3 million and $7.4 million respectively. If you're open to wishful thinking, Horrible Bosses did begin its opening weekend with $365,000 on Thursday night before opening with $28.3 million, but that's not happening with Popstar, though with 78 reviews now counted and the RottenTomatoes score holding at 79% this one could earn strong word of mouth and also perform better than expected.
This weekend's preview is directly below, we'll be back tomorrow with Friday estimates.
WEEKEND PREVIEW:
A pair of sequels in X-Men: Apocalypse and Alice Through the Looking Glass led a soft Memorial Day weekend last week and things aren't looking much better this weekend. Paramount is delivering its own sequel this weekend in the form of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows while Warner Bros. targets the romantics among us with Me Before You and Universal's Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping, which is merely hoping to keep its head above water. Over the past five years, the weekend following Memorial Day has seen an average drop of 18.7% for the top twelve. At this time, projections are looking at a drop just a bit higher, right around 20%, a percentage that could easily improve should Turtles 2 or last weekend's newcomers outperform expectations.
Opening in 4,071 theaters, Paramount is estimating a $35-40 million opening weekend for Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2. It's an estimate that seems just about on target given the performance of both Apocalypse and Alice last weekend not to mention sequels such as The Huntsman: Winter's War, Ride Along 2, Allegiant, etc. as the list goes on and on as one sequel after another opens well below its predecessor.
As for the newly relaunched Turtles franchise, 2014's feature did manage to score $65.5 million back in August 2014, but a "B" CinemaScore, 5.9 rating on IMDb and a 51% audience reaction on RottenTomatoes doesn't exactly suggest a sequel is what audiences were clamoring for. As of publication, the sequel was carrying a weary 30% on RottenTomatoes and has still yet to crack the top ten on the IMDb MOVIEMeter, while the original was within (or just outside of) the top ten several weeks ahead of release.
A likely scenario would be for the sequel to deliver an opening weekend performance within the same range as 2012's Wrath of the Titans when compared to 2010's Clash of the Titans. Clash opened with $61.2 million while Wrath saw diminishing returns right out of the gate, opening 45.3% less than the original with $33.4 million. Should Turtles 2 perform similarly it would be within the range of Paramount's expectations, delivering a $35.8 million opening. A similar comparison would be Scooby-Doo and its sequel, which also saw a 45% opening weekend drop from one to the other, again suggesting a $35 million opening should Turtles 2 follow suit.
The Clash/Wrath comparison feels solid, especially given Clash also received a "B" CinemaScore and currently holds a 5.8 user rating on IMDb. Right now, a forecast anywhere from $33-36 million seems safe, while anything at or above $40 million would make the overall weekend look much better, not to mention the Turtles franchise given the $135 million price tag on this latest installment.
Looking at a second place finish is last weekend's #1 feature, X-Men: Apocalypse, which is likely looking at a 60%+ drop this weekend. X-Men: First Class dipped 56.2% in its second weekend while X-Men: Days of Future Past fell 64.2%. The comparison to Future Past is more apt given both films opened on Memorial Day weekend and if you wanted to remain a little more positive you could compare to MIB 3 and a drop around 54%, but Mojo is forecasting a second weekend closer to $24 million rather than $30 million as the MIB comparison would suggest.
Eying a third place finish is Warner's romantic offering, Me Before You. The New Line and MGM co-production is an adaptation of Jojo Moyes's novel starring Emilia Clarke ("Game of Thrones") and Sam Claflin (The Hunger Games franchise) and cost roughly $20 million to produce. Films of this nature tend to open right around $12-14 million, which is exactly what WB is expecting from its 2,704 theaters. There is some potential for it to break a bit higher, but with comps such as The Age of Adaline and If I Stay, an opening right around $14 million seems like a strong bet.
Next we come to last weekend's biggest disappointment, Disney's Alice Through the Looking Glass. Heading into last weekend with expectations as lofty as $60 million for the four-day, the film managed only $33.5 million. Working in the film's favor is an "A-" CinemaScore from opening night audiences, but given the fact the Memorial Day weekend exhausted a large portion of the film's "first choice" audience it's potential for a satisfying hold is limited. A drop around 50%+ is what we're looking at and while it could battle Me Before You for third position it's more likely to finish fourth with around $12-13 million.
The weekend's other new wide release is Universal's Lonely Island spoof Popstar featuring Andy Samberg as former boy band member Conner4Real. So far the reviews have been strong with a current rating of 80% on RottenTomatoes with more than 50 reviews counted. Where the film runs into trouble is in its demographic as it's tracking strong among younger males, an audience that also has Turtles 2, X-Men and Captain America to consider. A weekend in the low, single digit millions is expected, perhaps topping out at $6 million if things go really well.
Love & Friendship will be battling for a second weekend in the top ten as it expands once again, this time into 819 theaters (+326). It will be neck-and-neck between the Whit Stillman comedy and WB's The Nice Guys, both of which should finish around $2.9 million.
Also continuing its expansion, A24's The Lobster will now be featured in 560 theaters (+444). It's tough to predict just how well it will perform, but using expansion performances from the likes of The Railway Man, Whiplash and The Lady in the Van suggest a weekend around $1.3-1.6 million is possible.
This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.
- Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows (4,071 theaters) - $34.2 M
- X-Men: Apocalypse (4,153 theaters) - $24.39 M
- Me Before You (2,704 theaters) - $14.47 M
- Alice Through the Looking Glass (3,763 theaters) - $12.89 M
- The Angry Birds Movie (3,484 theaters) - $9.87 M
- Captain America: Civil War (3,084 theaters) - $9.1 M
- The Jungle Book (1,990 theaters) - $4.75 M
- Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping (2,310 theaters) - $4.39 M
- Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising (2,418 theaters) - $4.21 M
- Love & Friendship (819 theaters) - $2.98 M
Discuss this story with fellow Box Office Mojo fans on Facebook. On Twitter, follow us at @boxofficemojo and author Brad Brevet at @bradbrevet.
